10 Times ‘Settled Science’ Was Disastrously Wrong—And What It Means for Today

When everyone agrees, that’s when you should ask the most questions.

This afternoon I clicked on a link that led to a video with Michael Knowles surrounded by folks ready to debate him. The first person to step up, argued in favor of medical gender care for teens, claiming the “global consensus” supports it as the best standard of care. Naturally, WPATH gets cited as evidence. Knowles proceeds to mostly dismantle his argument.

To be fair, it is an incredibly huge problem that numerous medical organizations are still backing up this very poorly supported course of action. If we can’t trust our major professional organizations how are everyday people supposed to evaluate information?

It got me thinking. What the heck is the value of a ‘global consensus’?

In argumentation theory, appealing to the idea that the masses believe something as proof it is true is called an argumentum ad populum, or an ‘appeal to the people’. This is the same argument that is trotted out in political debates, medical discussions like this, and climate change activism.

Do not be fooled. Anyone who has had a minute’s worth of experience with groupthink can tell you that mass belief doesn’t equal truth.

To know the truth of a thing, like whether there is life beyond Earth, requires rigorous testing, experimentation, and sometimes exploration. Many people can say that they have this kind of proof, but unless their conclusions come from rigorous, repeatable data collection with impeccable adherence to the scientific method, skepticism is warranted. Even when we have solid evidence, we should hold back from embracing 100% certainty. You never know when a black swan will show up.

Global consensus is no better when we are trying to prove that something is good. If we don’t hold fast to healthy underlying values, like honesty, personal autonomy, individual freedom, and free speech, we could end up in all kinds of crazy situations–cough, cough.

I’ll leave discussion for which shared values make for a healthy society for the widest majority of people for another day, and instead focus on some of the batshit crazy and even vile beliefs once held as undeniable truths. Then maybe we can put the global consensus fallacy to bed in a nice little coffin with a stuffed duck plushie for company.

The Global Consensus Hall of Shame!

1. Slavery–Remember when slavery was just the way of the world? You don’t see records of debate questioning the legitimacy of slavery in ancient Egypt. There is a noteworthy lack of discourse on the subject in ancient Rome, China, the Aztec Empire, Africa, Russia, and Europe.

   We’ll avoid mentioning places right now like North Korea, Thailand, Saudi Arabia, Eritrea, Russia, Senegal…should I stop?

   It wasn’t until right around the American Revolution that serious challenges to this global consensus started to gain traction. Thank goodness for that, by the look of it, there is still some work to do.

2. The Earth is the center of the Universe–God love Copernicus and Galileo for disabusing the world of this nearly uniformly believed erroneous notion. Poor Galileo was even put on trial for the heresy of it all.

3. Left-handed people are evil–I know folks who even as late as the 1970s were forced to write and use scissors right-handed. It’s amazing how long the effects of a toxic global belief can stick around.

4. California is an Island–While that may one day be true, from the 16th century through to the 18th California was drawn on maps as an island. It wasn’t until explorer Juan Bautista de Anza traveled to the west coast during 1774-1776 and settled the question. The global consensus was wrong.

5. Health is Determined by Four Humors–Humans are a juicy lot, and back in antiquity good health was directly tied to bodily fluids, phlegm, blood, black bile, and yellow bile. Imbalances among these fluids were believed the cause of disease. That was the global consensus for hundreds of years until the scientific method and the work of researchers like Louis Pasteur proved otherwise.

6. Bloodletting will cure what ails you–When your model for disease is bad body juice, drain, and dump becomes your go-to treatment. It’s no wonder common people didn’t like doctors back in the day despite the global consensus that this was the gold standard of care for just about everything. This went on for centuries.

7. Witchcraft is real–Remember those days when it was the global consensus that an old lady giving you the stink eye is why your crops failed? As cool as it would be to summon a plague of locusts or a well-timed frost to foil your neighbor’s fortunes, the global consensus that witchcraft was real never made it true. It just made it easier to hang or burn at the steak old ladies and others who were getting in your way.

   We don’t want that, right?

8. The brain stops developing after childhood– The global consensus was that it was true right up until scientific studies in recent decades proved that neuroplasticity continues through adulthood. Hooray!

9. Humans use only 10% of their brains– This myth, widely accepted for much of the 20th century, has also since been debunked by neuroscience. We use far more than just a fraction of our brains—just not all at once.

10. It’s possible to change sex—hot take in some circles. At the same time, what’s being bandied about as evidence for surgical and drug interventions is frighteningly poor quality. With many major medical associations in agreement that this belief and these procedures are effective, just, and true, it is easy to see why many would agree. Alas, poor quality evidence + agreement do not truth make.

    Unfortunately, until more people look into the research, and the major media reports on those findings, our young people will continue to be sterilized and mutilated. It really is that bad.

The Danger of Blind Consensus

Just because a majority believes something doesn’t make it true. Deference to mass opinion over evidence-based inquiry is a dangerous habit.

We have to judge truth by a stringent rubric of evidence, experimentation, and exploration paired with impeccable methodology.

The West once championed a value system that prioritized stringent, evidence-based methodologies precisely because history had demonstrated the catastrophic consequences of blindly following consensus. Unlike consensus, which merely reflects the prevailing opinions of the moment, scientific inquiry builds upon itself over time, correcting errors and refining our understanding through rigorous testing and falsifiability. While there is wisdom in the crowd, there is also madness—and sometimes, murderousness.

If this isn’t enough to convince you to retire the appeal to argumentum ad populum, I’ll make you an offer. I happen to be a fantastic gardener, and I have some truly special tulips for sale. The market is heating up, and not just anyone will get the chance to own these beauties. Better act fast—before everyone else does.

Housekeeping

I went to Nashville this week to talk about accreditation. Looks like things are happening.

On the Bookshelf

I read a little bit while I was trying to fall asleep. I swear. Just not enough to finish my paper books. But I did spend a fair bit of time downloading copies of my Kindle books. Now I can take those everywhere. Damnit, I may never finish a physical book again. The horror!

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About

Diogenes in Exile began after I returned to grad school to pursue a Clinical Mental Health Counseling master’s degree at the University of Tennessee. What I encountered, however, was a program deeply entrenched in Critical Theories ideology. During my time there, I experienced significant resistance, particularly for my Buddhist practice, which was labeled as invalidating to other identities. After careful reflection, I chose to leave the program, believing the curriculum being taught would ultimately harm clients and lead to unethical practices in the field.

Since then, I’ve dedicated myself to investigating, writing, and speaking out about the troubling direction of psychology, higher education, and other institutions that seem to have lost their way. When I’m not working on these issues, you’ll find me in the garden, creating art, walking my dog, or guiding my kids toward adulthood.

You can also find my work at Minding the Campus